Just How Accurate are the Pre-Season Predictions?

Discussion in 'Leaguegaming Hockey League (LGHL PSN)' started by JClaus33, Oct 8, 2017.

  1. JClaus33

    JClaus33 Well-Known Member Platinum

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    I saw this on XBox, so shoutout to @xDeJaVecu and @Scheckel29 for inspiring me to look back at the last 3 seasons of pre-season predictions. (Seasons 1 and 2 I couldn't find when I searched the forums so if someone knows if they were a thing and where they're located feel free to add them)

    Season 5 Pre-Season Predictions and those that made playoffs:

    1 - Dallas Stars - (4.48)
    2 - New Jersey Devils - (4.41)

    4 - Buffalo Sabres - (4.26)
    5 - Calgary Flames - (4.25)
    6 - Los Angeles Kings - (4.25)

    8 - Edmonton Oilers - (4.19)
    9 - St. Louis Blues - (4.17)
    10 - Vancouver Canucks - (4.13)
    11 - Detroit Red Wings - (4.13)
    12 - Anaheim Ducks - (4.12)
    13 - San Jose Sharks - (4.12)
    14 - Ottawa Senators - (4.12)
    15 - Florida Panthers - (4.11)
    16 - Columbus Blue Jackets - (4.10)
    18 - Colorado Avalanche - (4.05)
    19 - Washington Capitals - (4.05)


    22 - Carolina Hurricanes - (4.02)




    27 - Minnesota Wild - (3.80)

    Teams that dropped out:
    [​IMG] 3 - Chicago Blackhawks - (4.27)
    [​IMG] 6 - Los Angeles Kings - (4.25)
    [​IMG] 7 - Boston Bruins - (4.21)
    [​IMG] 8 - Edmonton Oilers - (4.19)

    Correctly predicted; 12/16, but Nashville and Chicago both would've made it over Washington (and Detroit) if it were simply the top 16.
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    Season 4 Pre-Season Predictions and those that made the playoffs:

    Total Power Ranking

    1 - Chicago Blackhawks - (4.56)

    3 - Boston Bruins - (4.42)
    4 - New Jersey Devils - (4.39)
    5 - Washington Capitals - (4.39)


    8 - Calgary Flames - (4.30)
    9 - Arizona Coyotes - (4.23)
    10 - Florida Panthers - (4.22)
    11 - Buffalo Sabres - (4.21)

    13 - Winnipeg Jets - (4.19)
    14 - Dallas Stars - (4.19)
    15 - Los Angeles Kings - (4.18)

    17 - Minnesota Wild - (4.10)
    18 - Carolina Hurricanes - (4.09)
    19 - Pittsburgh Penguins - (4.08)
    20 - Colorado Avalanche - (4.07)
    21 - St. Louis Blues - (4.01)

    23 - Philadelphia Flyers - (3.97)


    Teams that dropped out:
    [​IMG] 2 - Nashville Predators - (4.45)
    [​IMG] 6 - Detroit Red Wings - (4.36)
    [​IMG] 7 - Anaheim Ducks - (4.35)
    [​IMG] 12 - Columbus Blue Jackets - (4.20)
    [​IMG] 13 - Winnipeg Jets - (4.19)
    [​IMG] 16 - Vancouver Canucks - (4.14)

    Correctly Predicted; only 10/16 this season surprisingly, but nobody missed the playoffs that would've in a top 16 scenario.
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    Season 3 Pre-Season Predictions and those that made the playoffs:

    Total Power Ranking

    1 - Chicago Blackhawks - (4.59)
    2 - Dallas Stars - (4.46)
    3 - Columbus Blue Jackets - (4.36)
    4 - Anaheim Ducks - (4.32)
    5 - Florida Panthers - (4.31)
    6 - Tampa Bay Lightning - (4.30)
    7 - Edmonton Oilers - (4.30)
    8 - Pittsburgh Penguins - (4.26)
    9 - Vancouver Canucks - (4.25)
    10 - Boston Bruins - (4.25)



    14 - Montreal Canadiens - (4.17)


    17 - Arizona Coyotes - (4.03)


    20 - Winnipeg Jets - (4.01)
    21 - New Jersey Devils - (3.98)
    22 - Ottawa Senators - (3.93)




    27 - St. Louis Blues - (3.70)

    29 - New York Islanders - (3.66)


    Teams that dropped out:

    [​IMG] 11 - Nashville Predators - (4.23)
    [​IMG] 12 - Carolina Hurricanes - (4.23)
    [​IMG] 13 - Minnesota Wild - (4.21)
    [​IMG] 15 - Buffalo Sabres - (4.05)
    [​IMG] 16 - Washington Capitals - (4.04)

    Correctly Predicted; 11/16 though Nashville would've been in over the Islanders (NYI did manage to upset the #1 seed Bruins) Also pretty neat that the entire top 10 made it.
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    Analysis and Thoughts:
    So far it seems as though the pre-season rankings are pretty consistent, managing to correctly have 10-12 playoff teams each season, however I didn't sort the rankings by conference, which may be a slightly more accurate representation. Also, these rankings are done before draft picks are called up so it doesn't take those into account, which probably impacted a few teams each season.

    Also interesting to note, Chicago's Season 3 and Season 4 teams were seen as the strongest teams LGHL PSN has seen in the past 4 seasons, at 4.59 and 4.56 respectively, followed by Season 5 Dallas at 4.48.
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    What went wrong for the teams that didn't make it?

    Season 5: Saw 4 teams drop out from the pre-season ranks: Chicago, LA, Boston, and Edmonton. I wasn’t in the league for season 5, so I’m unsure of the little things that went on during this season, but looking through the rosters, here are my thoughts on what went wrong:

    CHI (3rd); Underperformed. Plain and simple this roster should’ve made the playoffs, they fell victim to being in the toughest division in the league, but they still had a lethal top 6 and a decent 3rd line on paper, plus a solid d core. There’s no reason this team shouldn’t have made the playoffs.

    LA (6th): Not actually that good. I think LG overrated this team, and if I’m not mistaken they had an ownership change mid-season, so I doubt that helped, but again not 100% sure


    Boston (7th): Unknown. I saw Schroyer got owner and had no doubt in my mind that they’d make the playoffs, and they ended up with a shockingly low 55 points. Schroyer could answer this one a lot better than I could.


    Edmonton (8th): Underperformed. Again, this is a team that definitely should’ve made the playoffs, they went with a full French roster, and they were easily good enough to make a run, but seemingly everyone underperformed, and the team as a whole gave up during week 9 as they forfeited their last 7 games after losing 5 straight.
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    Season 4: Saw the highest total of teams drop out with 6, and here’s why they missed in my opinion:


    Nashville (2): Top players Underperforming. Nobody saw this coming from Nashville, with a seemingly very strong roster, and the Clockwork boys as management, but none of them performed well in a very strong central division, and they somehow finished with only 80 points

    Detroit (6): Knees. We all know what happened, great team fell apart because of that.


    Anaheim (7): Overrated. I feel like LG overrated them, and that combined with Carm quitting led to Anaheim crashing down to earth


    Columbus (12): Bad Management. No offense to Pestilence, but this team went from great in Season 3, to dismantled and rebuilt into a team with solid potential, as evidenced by their season 5 performance, but poor management was the downfall here.


    Winnipeg (13): Lack of depth. Their top guys did decent enough, but there was no depth and the Jets finished last in the meat grinder known as the Central


    Vancouver (16)
    : Management. I can’t remember what led to it, but longtime owner Cummins and management partner Morash both quit along with about half the Vancouver team. They were projected as a bubble team, and in the end they didn’t make it that far.
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    Season 3: Nothing really too crazy here as all of the teams that dropped out were predicted to finish in the top 10 initially, but here’s what I think went wrong:



    Nashville (11): Central Division. In reality, this roster makes the playoffs in any other division, pretty unlucky to be honest.


    Carolina (12): Overrated. Carolina really wasn’t that good in Season 3 and everyone knew it but LG apparently.


    Minnesota (13): Central Division. Again, this roster on paper would most likely have made it in any other division, they just didn’t have the top end talent to compete in the central.


    Buffalo (15): @FALK He destroyed this team before bidding was even over and I have no idea why they were projected anywhere near the top 20 even.


    Washington (16): Overrated. 16th isn’t even rated super highly, but it was clear from the day bidding ended this team was not destined for anywhere but the basement.

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    Conclusion:

    Overall, there ended up being a pretty wide variety of reasons for teams to miss the playoffs, but the most common in my opinion tended to be either just plain bad management, or a team that was overrated by LG for whatever reason. If you were to look through the Season 6 predictions, to try and find the likely 3-6 teams within the top 16, those would be the 2 red flags to look for, and quickly skimming through the list, I see 4 teams in the top 10 as potential flameout candidates. I'll let you guys decide who you think I'm referring to, but I will say my team (LA) is very boom or bust. If our draft pick d men pan out and Ryno and myself can carry vs top teams we could be a Conference final and even cup contender. If our draft picks don't perform, and we struggle while on an island, the team could flame out and see a lot of roster movement.

    I hope you guys enjoyed this look back on the LG Pre-Season Rankings, and please do keep in mind the analysis portion is simply my opinion and best guesses, I don't mean to offend or make anyone feel bad, and if that is the case, I'm sorry but you will have to move past that. I'm trying to spice things up by adding more media, and I'll continue to add to my Individual Pre-Season predictions (If you would like to be added, just message me), and plan to bring an Off/Pre-Season trade analysis on all the moves we saw, and that should come when rosters are set for week 1.

    JClaus33
     
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  2. l-forthy-l

    l-forthy-l Well-Known Member

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    Personally, I'm still a little curious as to what happened with a few of those things...

    #StillConfused

    #PTSD
     
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  3. JClaus33

    JClaus33 Well-Known Member Platinum

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    haha, I should say, we know what happened to him and others, not necessarily the full details of what went down
     
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  4. Flapjack8796

    Flapjack8796 Well-Known Member

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    "Explaning the results: This data looks at the players on all teams, and every single (non-presason) game they've ever played in this league, averages out their performance and returns a power ranking formula in which we break up by position group and then total." -@Tris10

    I think this is the biggest driving force behind these overrated/dud teams that don't live up to the LG predictions. If I am understanding how the power rankings are calculated, a player that has only played AHL or CHL can have the same performance score as a guy that has only played his career in the NHL. Unless the system weighs the different leagues accordingly?
     
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  5. CoUnTeR-AtTaCk43

    CoUnTeR-AtTaCk43 Colorado Avalanche Owner LGHL Owner (PSN)

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    Good job @JClaus33 , nice to read good media write ups, keep it up,
     
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  6. Untuchabl

    Untuchabl I tried to be nice.....now I'll do what I do best

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    Season 3 Washington was talent worthy of it's 1st 2 seasons. I lacked the ownership inspiration and completely demolished the team morale before quitting. 100% my fault that team failed. It was 90% roster turnover after i quit in week 2.

    Good write up.
     
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